~M~A~X~T~H~I~N~K pan.max Title Introduction (a bit too long, but basically done for now) WHY There's a respiratory pandemic going on, and it's evolving. There will be more respiratory pandemics (flu, another coronavirus, another germ). When we face one such pandemic, we know they cause Disease, Death and Disruption of important societal services - even vital ones, adding to Disease and Death and amplifying the Disruption. We also know we will want to Prevent, Treat and Keep important services going. We know that, if the pandemic is severe enough, our response mechanisms will be overwhelmed, and so we need to prepare responses in advance. Responses that will use available resources to fulfill our needs. Finally, we know that this has to be done at a global level, at the local level, and every level in between. How are we going to do this? I'm writing it for my own learning, in the hope that the exploration will make sense to others. WHAT This document has information that is all over the internet. If there's something remotely innovative, it comes from FluWiki or from my own work writing FluSCIM. I hope that much better innovation will come from others, as with the Stone Soup story! The structure is simple: Prevent, Treat and Vital. For Prevent: Reduce (contacts), Intercept (with distance, air and barriers), and Protect (mainly with vaccines). For each heading, there's Why, What, How and What-if. Followed by Wardley Maps, First steps and How to work together. The structure is expected to evolve as this document is written. HOW I'm creating this outline in MaxThink for MS-DOS under DOSBOX in Linux. It may be good, once the main body of the text has some shape, to port it, via .md & pandoc or some python script, to appropedia. That will make the idea and the details visible. After that, ideally, the project might be overtaken by some organisation with appropriate resources. I can daydream of the ZeroCovid orgs to finance the space for a wiki, translations, images and videos. Eventually, the "coronawiki" might be extended into a 2021 version of "fluwiki" and become "respanwiki", for respiratory pandemics. WHAT-IF There are several ways this initiative might fail. I have longcovid, so I might get worse. Or catch something else. Or whatever. So I will try and upload copies of the current work to lugon.neocities.org/max.txt. It may or may not be possible to have all the world follow any given strategy. Things are going to be messy for a while. But try we must, and we really don't know how far we can get until we do try. Something else may happen that will mean this is not important. A devastating flu pandemic. World war. A solar storm. An asteroid the size of the Earth directed to our center of gravity. So this would be our "dancing in the Titanic" moment. Ok. On the other hand, it might work. We might contribute something meaningful to someone. We might make things more understandable for a number of people. Even, gasp, to ourselves! WARDLEY MAPS Simon Wardley has created this method for mapping services in a way that allows conversation and action, reflection and insights, and exploration of possibilities. I'd like to try it with at least some of the items. I feel that, even if it's only moderately useful, we might gain something. After all, much of this is about turning exquisite innovations into commodities. Masks4all style. JIGSAW PUZZLE & AMBITION The way this document works is by trying to be as comprehensive and detailed as possible. So it's a bit like a jigsaw puzzle. It's guided by ambition of the silliest kind. BHAG is the geek term for "big, hairy, ambicious goal". Shoot for the moon, land somewhere. For each item, I'd like to explore wild ideas, then see if they might work, then see why they wouldn't work, and then try again. FIRST STEPS, TASKS, PIECES If this project succeeds, the kind reader would have something quite specific. An framework and an exploration. But also specific ideas, and hopefully "first steps", tasks, lines of action. Think of it like the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle. You can help with one piece ("I like that yellow one"), or with a group of pieces ("are we building the Sun?"). There should be many roles. We can all have fun and be somewhat productive. Even by bringing food and drinks to those doing direct work. PEOPLE: SELECT ONE & ORGANISE AROUND Once this has some shape, you would have a map of what humanity is doing. You would be able to find others, or be found by others. "How are we going to do this?" starts by being a vague concept, but can and should become very specific. "How am I doing this tiny bit?" Best wishes! === REDUCE Introduction "Reduce" is about not having people in the same space. Specifically, we would want to not have "infectious people" (person A) in the same space as "suceptible people" (person B). But sometimes we will not know who is who. REGIONS-BORDERS-FENCES WHY Any given territory will either have the virus or not. Or it may have new variants or not. Respiratory pandemic viruses tend to enter new territories only or mostly with people; i.e. not with the wind, insects, water, objects of trade. If that is the case, or at the beginning of a new pandemic or a new phase of the pandemic (say with a new variant), it may make sense to make it difficult for the virus to enter new territories, while allowing a degree of human movement. The regions can tackle the virus independently of each other, each achieving "zero" or "near zero" levels. Regions that reach said level can have restrictions lifted. WHAT Restrictions can be complete: no person crosses a given border. Restrictions can be based on full quarantine for all. Restrictions can be based on quarantine that's lifted depending on testing. HOW WHAT-IF CASES-DIAGNOSES-ISOLATION WHY WHAT HOW WHAT-IF CONTACTS-TRACING-QUARANTINE WHY WHAT HOW WHAT-IF POPULATION-LOCKDOWN-SUPPORT WHY WHAT HOW WHAT-IF WORK-TRANSPORT WHY WHAT HOW WHAT-IF EDUCATION-TRIBES-RURALISE WHY Education systems fulfill a number of needs. Students: learn, socialise with same-age students, are supervised and protected from troubled homes and physical risks, get some meals, get special-needs assistance. Parents: are freed to work. Teachers: have a paid job. Grandparents and other family members: are freed from having to care for the young. In a pandemic, those needs are still present, and new ones appear. Transmission must be reduced. Transmission must be detected. People must learn: new behaviours etc. The situation will be different depending on the stage in the pandemic, and on available resources. A redesign of how education happens gives everyone options that can be used if needed. (Secondarily, some elements of the redesign process may be found to be useful even after the pandemic finishes, and retained.) WHAT HOW WHAT-IF SHOPPING-ASYNCHRONOUS-DELIVERY WHY WHAT HOW WHAT-IF SPECIAL-FENCED WHY WHAT HOW WHAT-IF === INTERCEPT Introduction EXTERIOR WHY WHAT HOW WHAT-IF VENTILATE/FILTER WHY WHAT HOW WHAT-IF DISTANCE WHY WHAT HOW WHAT-IF MASKS WHY WHAT HOW WHAT-IF HOODS-HELMETS WHY WHAT HOW WHAT-IF EXCUBATOR-TRANSPARENT-BOXES WHY WHAT HOW WHAT-IF